Every issue, exactly as it was published.

21 issues since 2026-04-25. Nothing here has been edited after the fact, including the weeks a later issue proved wrong. That is what makes the trend below worth reading.

01

The trend

0%50%100%v1.8v1.9v1.112026-04-252026-09-07
> +3.5 °C> +3.0 °C> +2.5 °C> +2.0 °C

Line weight and dash carry the same meaning as on the ladder: the two upper thresholds are beyond the instrumental record and are drawn as less solid because they are less certain. A threshold begins where it was first published rather than at zero, because two of these were added as the event outgrew the scale. Vertical rules mark methodology-version changes, across which week-over-week deltas are not comparable.

Issues

Newest first. Each links to the frozen copy that produced its numbers.

Issue> +3.5 °C> +3.0 °C> +2.5 °C> +2.0 °CMethod

The +1.0 and +1.5 thresholds reached 100% in June and were retired from the public ladder; the event outgrew the bottom of the scale. Their full history stays in each issue’s own page.

A dash in a probability column means that threshold was not yet published that week; the two upper ones were added as the event outgrew the scale. A dash under Method means the issue predates methodology versioning, which begins at v1.7 on 2026-05-25. The four earlier issues are unrevised originals; they are shown as published rather than back-filled with a version they never carried.