Crops
The crop-region map behind these counts was redrawn on 17 September. No count published before then compares with one here.
Three of Luxembourg’s 3 crop regions are at a record low. Before this year there had never been one.
Ten other countries also passed their own previous worst. Eleven in all. A typical year has two. 192 crop regions worldwide are at their worst on record for this point in the season, against a typical 87, higher than any of the last twelve years. Where they cluster is what this page is about.
Newest observation: the ten days to 31 October, 11 days ago. All 165 places are reporting at this dekad.
Crops is the confirming instrument. It is never more than one publication behind its source, which puts it 9 to 18 days back depending where the cycle sits. It answers how a season compares with twenty-six others, not what happened yesterday.
A season that has not opened cannot be measured, so this page says most about countries whose season is starting. 3 of the 165 countries measured here, about one in 55, open a growing season between now and early November. That is a calendar, not a forecast.
BurundiChadColombiaEcuadorEgyptFranceGuatemalaHondurasHungaryJamaicaLuxembourgNicaraguaPapua New GuineaPeruSaudi ArabiaSudanSwitzerlandUgandaCountries readers ask about
Shown every week, whether or not anything is happening in them. Each is measured against its own record and never against the others.
The top number is the whole season added up, so one bad month barely shows. The others are conditions right now, which is why they moved first.
Ordered by how much of each country’s cropland is far into its own 26-year range right now, across the four fast instruments, weighted by ASAP’s crop mask so a region with no cropland has no vote. That is breadth, not severity. A country with one region in an extreme state and the rest ordinary sits lower here than one where everything is somewhat bad, so the per-country figures below are the ones that say how bad. The harvest measure is deliberately left out of the ordering: it integrates from sowing, so it cannot say what is abnormal now. This average is ours rather than an agency’s.
Egypt and Portugal are placed on partial coverage this dekad: some regions were not reported, so their ordering rests on fewer readings than the rest. The thinnest is 96% of what that country reports when fullest.
1st most stressed of 26, 4th steepest fall of 26, but from the 17th highest starting level of those 26, so it is not a record fall once that is accounted for. Each of the 8 regions counts equally, so one carries 12% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
1st most stressed of 26, rose over this window, ranking 25th of 26 by fall steepness, from the 26th highest starting level of those 26. Each of the 7 regions counts equally, so one carries 14% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
1st most stressed of 26, 1st steepest fall of 26. Each of the 10 regions counts equally, so one carries 10% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
1st most stressed of 26, 12th steepest fall of 26. Each of the 6 regions counts equally, so one carries 17% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
1st most stressed of 26, 1st steepest fall of 26. Each of the 26 regions counts equally, so one carries 4% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
1st most stressed of 26, 3rd steepest fall of 26. Each of the 5 regions counts equally, so one carries 20% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
1st most stressed of 26, 1st steepest fall of 26. Each of the 20 regions counts equally, so one carries 5% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
1st most stressed of 26, rose over this window, ranking 25th of 26 by fall steepness, from the 26th highest starting level of those 26. Each of the 8 regions counts equally, so one carries 12% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
1st most stressed of 26, 5th steepest fall of 26, but from the 25th highest starting level of those 26, so it is not a record fall once that is accounted for. Each of the 8 regions counts equally, so one carries 12% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
1st most stressed of 26, 5th steepest fall of 26, but from the 18th highest starting level of those 26, so it is not a record fall once that is accounted for. Each of the 34 regions counts equally, so one carries 3% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
1st most stressed of 26, 1st steepest fall of 26. Each of the 5 regions counts equally, so one carries 20% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
1st most stressed of 26, 3rd steepest fall of 26. Each of the 3 regions counts equally, so one carries 33% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
The Republic of North Macedonia
1st most stressed of 26, 4th steepest fall of 26, but from the 11th highest starting level of those 26, so it is not a record fall once that is accounted for. Each of the 8 regions counts equally, so one carries 12% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
1st most stressed of 26, rose over this window, ranking 18th of 26 by fall steepness, from the 25th highest starting level of those 26. Each of the 4 regions counts equally, so one carries 25% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
1st most stressed of 26, 2nd steepest fall of 26. Each of the 42 regions counts equally, so one carries 2% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
3rd most stressed of 26, 1st steepest fall of 26. Each of the 11 regions counts equally, so one carries 9% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
2nd most stressed of 26, 1st steepest fall of 26. Each of the 8 regions counts equally, so one carries 12% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
1st most stressed of 26, 14th steepest fall of 26, but from the 18th highest starting level of those 26, so it is not a record fall once that is accounted for. Each of the 25 regions counts equally, so one carries 4% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
1st most stressed of 26, 3rd steepest fall of 26, but from the 24th highest starting level of those 26, so it is not a record fall once that is accounted for. Each of the 13 regions counts equally, so one carries 8% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
1st most stressed of 26, 7th steepest fall of 26, but from the 15th highest starting level of those 26, so it is not a record fall once that is accounted for. Each of the 8 regions counts equally, so one carries 12% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
3rd most stressed of 26, 1st steepest fall of 26. Each of the 6 regions counts equally, so one carries 17% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
3rd most stressed of 26, rose over this window, ranking 20th of 26 by fall steepness, from the 23rd highest starting level of those 26. Each of the 9 regions counts equally, so one carries 11% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
7th most stressed of 26, rose over this window, ranking 21st of 26 by fall steepness, from the 19th highest starting level of those 26. Each of the 16 regions counts equally, so one carries 6% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
12th most stressed of 26, 8th steepest fall of 26. Each of the 19 regions counts equally, so one carries 5% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
7th most stressed of 26, 1st steepest fall of 26. Each of the 32 regions counts equally, so one carries 3% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
13th most stressed of 26, rose over this window, ranking 25th of 26 by fall steepness, from the 10th highest starting level of those 26. Each of the 16 regions counts equally, so one carries 6% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
10th most stressed of 26, 5th steepest fall of 26, but from the 15th highest starting level of those 26, so it is not a record fall once that is accounted for. Each of the 17 regions counts equally, so one carries 6% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
rose over this window, ranking 24th of 26 by fall steepness, from the 24th highest starting level of those 26.
17th most stressed of 26, 1st steepest fall of 26. Each of the 18 regions counts equally, so one carries 6% of this figure whatever its cropland area: the cropland reference data was absent at build time, so this figure is NOT area-weighted.
Where the record lows are
Grouped by country, because a single region at a record low is common and several in one country is not. Countries beyond their own recent maximum come first; the rest follow by how far their worst region has fallen.
Luxembourg3 of 3 regions, against a twelve-year high of 0 and a recent average of 0
3 regions
Burundi16 of 18 regions, against a twelve-year high of 0 and a recent average of 0
16 regions
Guatemala12 of 22 regions, against a twelve-year high of 1 and a recent average of 0.25
12 regions
Uganda3 of 4 regions, against a twelve-year high of 1 and a recent average of 0.08
3 regions
Nicaragua10 of 17 regions, against a twelve-year high of 3 and a recent average of 0.42
10 regions
Egypt13 of 27 regions, against a twelve-year high of 2 and a recent average of 0.33
13 regions
Sudan9 of 18 regions, against a twelve-year high of 3 and a recent average of 0.25
9 regions
Saudi Arabia4 of 12 regions, against a twelve-year high of 1 and a recent average of 0.25
4 regions
Jamaica6 of 13 regions, against a twelve-year high of 3 and a recent average of 0.33
6 regions
Hungary4 of 20 regions, against a twelve-year high of 0 and a recent average of 0
4 regions
Honduras4 of 17 regions, against a twelve-year high of 2 and a recent average of 0.33
4 regions
Colombia9 of 28 regions, against a twelve-year high of 6 and a recent average of 1
9 regions
Switzerland3 of 24 regions, against a twelve-year high of 1 and a recent average of 0.08
3 regions
France3 of 13 regions, against a twelve-year high of 2 and a recent average of 0.17
3 regions
Papua New Guinea3 of 20 regions, against a twelve-year high of 2 and a recent average of 0.75
3 regions
Ecuador3 of 23 regions, against a twelve-year high of 2 and a recent average of 0.42
3 regions
Chad7 of 23 regions, against a twelve-year high of 6 and a recent average of 1
7 regions
Peru3 of 24 regions, against a twelve-year high of 2 and a recent average of 0.42
3 regions
Australia6 regions at a record low
6 regions
El Salvador4 regions at a record low
4 regions
34 further countries hold one or two regions at a record low, which is what an ordinary dekad looks like.
Everywhere else we measure
118 more places, in the same order as above: worst first by how much of each place is far into its own 26-year range this dekad. Every place we publish has a page, whether or not anything is happening in it.
Sierra Leone · Ethiopia · Gabon · Venezuela · Bulgaria · Kenya · Albania · Mauritania · Bangladesh · Liberia · United Republic of Tanzania · Democratic Republic of the Congo · Benin · Ghana · Lao People's Democratic Republic · Malaysia · Dominican Republic · Philippines · Fiji · Trinidad and Tobago · Croatia · Costa Rica · Belarus · Timor-Leste · Central African Republic · Panama · Bhutan · Togo · Moldova - Republic of · Sweden · Angola · New Zealand · Algeria · Viet Nam · Niger · Denmark · Côte d'Ivoire · Dem People's Rep of Korea · Cameroon · Belgium · Cambodia · Yemen · Canada · Mali · India · Tunisia · Czech Republic · Mozambique · Gambia · Malawi · Portugal · Bolivia · Brazil · Slovenia · Cape Verde · Eswatini · Nigeria · Thailand · Estonia · Oman · Greece · Norway · Republic of Korea · China · Iran (Islamic Republic of) · United States of America · Mongolia · Burkina Faso · Russian Federation · Morocco · Lithuania · Zambia · Latvia · Senegal · Azerbaijan · Netherlands · Myanmar · Kazakhstan · Madagascar · Israel · Iceland · Botswana · Haiti · Japan · Zimbabwe · Finland · Tajikistan · Ireland · Cuba · Jordan · Kyrgyzstan · Nepal · Pakistan · Namibia · Somalia · Iraq · Lebanon · Libya · Uzbekistan · Uruguay · Sri Lanka · Syrian Arab Republic · South Africa · Armenia · Chile · Afghanistan · Türkiye · Georgia · Turkmenistan · Lesotho · Argentina · Cyprus · Faroe Islands · Taiwan · Isle of Man · Mauritius · Kuril islands · New Caledonia
Falling fastest
A different question from the one above: not how stressed a place is, but how fast it has got worse. Ordered by the change in cumulative vegetation score over the last four dekads, steepest first, which is the figure shown. A place appears only if that fall holds once its starting level is controlled for: 98 of the reported places fall from a high start, where part of the drop is a return toward the average, and none of them is listed. The 12 steepest of 67 that hold.
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The Central American isthmus
Seven of the eight countries on the Central American isthmus are in their four worst crop years out of 26. Three of them were worse in 2015 than they are now.
Falling fastest
15 countries are falling faster than in any year on record, against a prior maximum of 10 and a typical 3.3. That is a count of countries, tested as a set: it asks whether 15 is an unusual number to be falling this fast at once, not whether any one of them is unusual.
A country enters this count on the four-dekad fall in the harvest measure, after controlling for the level it fell from and for the across-year trend. Both controls matter: a steep fall from a high start is arithmetic rather than news, and the series itself drifts, so a bare rank is partly that drift. Without them the same dekad counts 19 countries rather than 15. No country is named here, because an individual at rank 1 is what chance produces several times over a set this size.
The same season, counted two ways
These croplands have been getting greener for twenty-five years. Leave that trend in and this season’s crop result is better than usual; take it out and it lands in the worse third.
Crop result across the 26 years of this dekad: 21 of 26 with the trend left in, 7 of 26 with it taken out. Neither is the correct one; they answer different questions.
This dekad against the whole record
Where each figure sits among the 26 years of this same dekad, across all 165 places we measure. Detrended is the figure to read: these instruments drift, and the drift is upward, so the raw rank flatters every stress claim. Both are shown because they disagree and a reader should see that there was a choice.
| detrended | raw | |
|---|---|---|
| all five instruments available everywhere, read togetherRainfall, 3-month, Temperature, Vegetation, cumulative, Vegetation, current, Water satisfaction | 1 of 26 | 3 of 26 |
| the season-cumulative crop outcomeVegetation, cumulative | 7 of 26 | 21 of 26 |
| the purely meteorological instrumentsRainfall, 3-month, Temperature | 2 of 26 | 1 of 26 |
These are two named groups, not a split of the five: Vegetation, current and Water satisfaction belong to neither, being an instantaneous crop state and a modelled water balance. So the two lines cannot be read as "the weather" against "the crops" with nothing left over.
- Detrending moves these two figures in opposite directions, so raw and detrended are both emitted and neither stands alone. Temperature worsens almost everywhere and cropland greens, so the raw gap between them is widened by two secular trends rather than by this season alone.
- 0.5 is the mean of every place's own series by construction and is not a normal to compare against. Use the observed range across the record, which is what the series carries.
- The crop outcome instrument is cumulative over the growing cycle, so at this dekad it integrates a season that has not finished. It is a reading of conditions to date and carries no statement about the rest of the season.
How we know 81 is an ordinary number
The expectation rises with the number of units, not with the weather, so any map at this resolution shows dozens of record lows every week. The figure marked is what an EVEN spread of records would give, and records do not fall evenly. The last 12 years of this dekad averaged 86.9 and ranged from 47 to 151, counted over the same places shown here.
This measurement is of the crop canopy and not of what stressed it: heat, drought, disease and late planting are not separable here, which is why no row on this page names a cause.
How these figures are built, including what this channel measures and what it does not.