Crops
Three of Yemen’s 20 crop regions are at a record low. One was the previous worst.
Four other countries also passed their own previous worst, which is a normal number in any given week. 69 crop regions worldwide are at their worst on record for this point in the season, against a typical 60, higher than all but three of the last twelve years. Where they cluster is what this page is about.
Newest observation: the ten days to 31 July, 12 days ago. All 123 places are reporting at this dekad.
Crops is the confirming instrument. It is never more than one publication behind its source, which puts it 9 to 18 days back depending where the cycle sits. It answers how a season compares with twenty-six others, not what happened yesterday.
A season that has not opened cannot be measured, so this page says most about countries whose season is starting. 23 of the 123 countries measured here, about one in five, open a growing season between now and early November, among them Spain and Argentina. That is a calendar, not a forecast.
Countries readers ask about
Shown every week, whether or not anything is happening in them. Each is measured against its own record and never against the others.
within its own normal range.
2nd most stressed of 26, 1st steepest fall of 26. Each of the 22 regions counts equally, so one carries 5% of this figure whatever its cropland area.
5th most stressed of 26, 20th steepest fall of 26 once its high starting level is accounted for. Each of the 17 regions counts equally, so one carries 6% of this figure whatever its cropland area.
6th most stressed of 26, 4th steepest fall of 26 once its high starting level is accounted for. Each of the 16 regions counts equally, so one carries 6% of this figure whatever its cropland area.
10th most stressed of 26, 16th steepest fall of 26 once its high starting level is accounted for. Each of the 19 regions counts equally, so one carries 5% of this figure whatever its cropland area.
2nd most stressed of 26, 1st steepest fall of 26. Each of the 7 regions counts equally, so one carries 14% of this figure whatever its cropland area.
2nd most stressed of 26, 1st steepest fall of 26. Each of the 9 regions counts equally, so one carries 11% of this figure whatever its cropland area.
Where the record lows are
Grouped by country, because a single region at a record low is common and several in one country is not. Countries beyond their own recent maximum come first; the rest follow by how far their worst region has fallen.
Yemen3 of 20 regions, against a previous high of 1 and a recent average of 0.08
3 regions
Sudan4 of 15 regions, against a previous high of 3 and a recent average of 0.5
4 regions
Philippines3 of 17 regions, against a previous high of 2 and a recent average of 0.5
3 regions
Angola3 of 18 regions, against a previous high of 2 and a recent average of 0.67
3 regions
Chad5 of 22 regions, against a previous high of 4 and a recent average of 1.08
5 regions
Libya1 region at a record low
1 region
Suriname2 regions at a record low
2 regions
Ecuador1 region at a record low
1 region
Democratic Republic of the Congo3 regions at a record low
3 regions
Congo2 regions at a record low
2 regions
Papua New Guinea2 regions at a record low
2 regions
Malaysia3 regions at a record low
3 regions
Peru2 regions at a record low
2 regions
United Republic of Tanzania2 regions at a record low
2 regions
Uganda1 region at a record low
1 region
Ethiopia2 regions at a record low
2 regions
Rwanda4 regions at a record low
4 regions
Chile1 region at a record low
1 region
Burundi3 regions at a record low
3 regions
Egypt1 region at a record low
1 region
16 further countries hold one or two regions at a record low, which is what an ordinary dekad looks like.
Falling fastest
13 countries are falling faster than in any year on record, against a prior maximum of 10 and a typical 2.6. That is a count of countries, tested as a set: it asks whether 13 is an unusual number to be at a record, not whether any one of them is.
Rank 1 of 26 on the four-dekad fall, and still rank 1 once the level it fell from is controlled for. An individual country at rank 1 is what chance produces about four times over a set this size, so these are named as members rather than as findings: Oman (0.48 clear of its next year), Dem People's Rep of Korea (0.42 clear of its next year), Ethiopia (0.39 clear of its next year). The figure beside each is how far clear of its own next-worst year it sits, which is what separates them, and it is not a rank.
The same season, counted two ways
These croplands have been getting greener for twenty-five years. Leave that trend in and this season’s crop result is better than usual; take it out and it lands in the worse third.
Crop result across the 26 years of this dekad: 25 of 26 with the trend left in, 9 of 26 with it taken out. Neither is the correct one; they answer different questions.
This dekad against the whole record
Where each figure sits among the 26 years of this same dekad, across all 123 places we measure. Detrended is the figure to read: these instruments drift, and the drift is upward, so the raw rank flatters every stress claim. Both are shown because they disagree and a reader should see that there was a choice.
| detrended | raw | |
|---|---|---|
| all five instruments available everywhere, read togetherRainfall, 3-month, Temperature, Vegetation, cumulative, Vegetation, current, Water satisfaction | 3 of 26 | 2 of 26 |
| the season-cumulative crop outcomeVegetation, cumulative | 9 of 26 | 25 of 26 |
| the purely meteorological instrumentsRainfall, 3-month, Temperature | 1 of 26 | 1 of 26 |
These are two named groups, not a split of the five: Vegetation, current and Water satisfaction belong to neither, being an instantaneous crop state and a modelled water balance. So the two lines cannot be read as "the weather" against "the crops" with nothing left over.
- Detrending moves these two figures in opposite directions, so raw and detrended are both emitted and neither stands alone. Temperature worsens almost everywhere and cropland greens, so the raw gap between them is widened by two secular trends rather than by this season alone.
- 0.5 is the mean of every place's own series by construction and is not a normal to compare against. Use the observed range across the record, which is what the series carries.
- The crop outcome instrument is cumulative over the growing cycle, so at this dekad it integrates a season that has not finished. It is a reading of conditions to date and carries no statement about the rest of the season.
How we know 81 is an ordinary number
The expectation rises with the number of units, not with the weather, so any map at this resolution shows dozens of record lows every week. The figure marked is what an EVEN spread of records would give, and records do not fall evenly. The last 12 years of this dekad averaged 59.9 and ranged from 24 to 104, counted over the same places shown here.
This measurement is of the crop canopy and not of what stressed it: heat, drought, disease and late planting are not separable here, which is why no row on this page names a cause.