Crops · dekad 2026-08-11

Guatemala

Guatemala is 1st most stressed of 26 observations for this point in the season, and rose over this window, ranking 15th of 26 by fall steepness, from the 22nd highest starting level of those 26. None of its 10 crop regions is at a record low on the measure that adds up the whole season, marked below, which is also the slowest of them to move.

Three of Guatemala's 10 crop regions have never looked worse than they do today.

Three instruments, 10 regions, one day. Each region against its own 26 years, never against another region.

Vegetation, current

3 of 10 regions at their own record

Guatemala: 0.20 standard deviations above normal

Central Area. lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Motagua Valley. lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Eastern Area. lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Quiché. 18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Verapaz. 2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026W. Highlands. 2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Southern Area. 24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Huehuetenango. 4th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Izabal. 10th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Petén. 24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Water satisfaction

4 of 10 regions at their own record

Guatemala: 91% of crop water need met, normally 96%

Central Area. 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Motagua Valley. lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Eastern Area. lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Quiché. lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Verapaz. 2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026W. Highlands. 14th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Southern Area. lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Huehuetenango. 2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Izabal. 12th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Petén. 5th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Rainfall, 3-month

5 of 10 regions at their own record

Guatemala: 2.10 standard deviations below normal

Central Area. lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Motagua Valley. lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Eastern Area. lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Quiché. 7th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Verapaz. 8th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026W. Highlands. lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Southern Area. lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Huehuetenango. 9th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Izabal. 10th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Petén. 7th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Colour
at this region's normalfar below
Outline
A heavy outline is that region's worst in 26 years. Different facts: a region can be dark without an outline, meaning far from normal but it has been worse, or outlined without being darkest, a record but a narrow one.
One scale, three instruments
Every panel saturates at 2.5 standard deviations below that region's own normal, so a colour means the same distance-from-normal on all three. It does not mean the same consequence: these measure different things and move at different speeds. The figures under each heading stay in the instrument's own units.

A fourth instrument is not shown here. Cumulative vegetation, the crop-outcome measure closest to yield, reads 3rd of 26 for this country with no region at a record. It integrates from the start of the season, so it is structurally the last to move and reads calmest exactly when a fast deterioration is under way. It is left off the panels to keep three maps comparable in kind; it is on the page in full below.

Vegetation, cumulativethe harvest measure0of 10
Vegetation, current3of 10
Water satisfaction4of 10
Rainfall, 3-month5of 10
Temperature7of 10

What moved, and when

Each square is one dekad, and its shade shows how many of this country’s crop regions stood at their own worst on record for that point in the season. Rows are ordered by how much time each instrument summarises, shortest first, because a shorter window can move sooner. That order is fixed and is the same on every country page.

Vegetation, currentthis dekad
Soil moisturethis dekad
Temperaturethis dekad
Rainfall, 3-monththe past 3 months
Vegetation, cumulativethe season so far, from sowing
Water satisfactionthe season so far, as a water balance
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug
none at a recordone regionfewer than a thirda third to three quartersmost or alltoo few regions reporting to saynot reported
What connects these rows

Nothing we can show. The driver is not identified here. This section says what moved and when. It never says because.

These 23 dekads were picked rather than derived. A shorter window changes which peak looks like the first, and a sequence visible inside a window may not exist outside it.

How bad is it, against this country’s own record

Five instruments read together our combination, not an observation

worst on record of 26 years at this point in the season

The most stressed of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026, across 5 instruments read together

202620012026

What the instruments say

The canopy is in its worst third, as are water satisfaction and rainfall.

Each track is that instrument’s own 26 years, worst on the left.

Vegetation, cumulative-0.243rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.2422nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction91%lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-2.23lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature28.8 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Five instruments, each against its own 26 years for this point in the season. They are shown together because they can disagree: a region can sit at a record low on vegetation while water or rainfall sits in its best third. 38 of the 196 regions at a record low on current vegetation have water or rainfall sitting in its own best third at the same moment, about one in five. This page reports where each one sits and does not say what caused what.

Every region of Guatemala, worst to least

Each bar is the full spread of that region’s previous 25 years at this point in the season. The dot is this year. A dot at the left of a wide bar and a dot at the left of a narrow bar are different findings, which is why the history is drawn rather than described.

its normalworsebetterMotagua ValleyCentral AreaEastern AreaQuichéVerapazW. HighlandsHuehuetenangoSouthern AreaIzabalPetén

Regions in colour are at their worst on record. The rest are placed on the same scale so a single deep region inside an otherwise ordinary country reads differently from a country where the whole distribution has moved.

Motagua Valley

-1.58 2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-1.582nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-1.73lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction89%lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.83lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature26.5 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Central Area

-1.39 2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-1.392nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-1.94lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction97%3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.90lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature16.2 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Eastern Area

-0.84 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.843rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-1.64lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction81%lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.75lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature25.4 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Quiché

-0.81 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.813rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.4718th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction93%lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.007th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature24.1 °C7th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Verapaz

-0.55 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.553rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.632nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction95%2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.928th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature23.0 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

W. Highlands

-0.52 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.523rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.832nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction100%14th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.70lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature22.5 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Huehuetenango

-0.25 13th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.2513th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.714th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction96%2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.449th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature24.9 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Southern Area

-0.17 6th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.176th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.4224th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction90%lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-2.40lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature29.7 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Izabal

+0.14 17th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.1417th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.1110th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction98%12th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.7310th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature24.4 °C11th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Petén

+0.17 17th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.1717th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.6824th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction98%5th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.127th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature25.7 °C10th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

This measurement is of the crop canopy and not of what stressed it: heat, drought, disease and late planting are not separable here, which is why no claim on this page names a cause.

Kristjan Lepik (2026). The Long Swell, Crops. thelongswell.com