How big does this El Niño get?
The Pacific has not been this warm beneath the surface in the 47 years we have measured it. August's reading is already above what 1997 reached at its October peak, two months later in its own season.
01 · Observed
Subsurface heat is at the highest value in the 47-year record. Above 1997's own October peak of +2.56, with roughly three months of seasonal build still ahead.
Niño 3.4 is at +2.9 °C this week.
02 · Outlook
Three rungs. A rung retires when it reaches the display bound rather than when someone edits this page.
And where those numbers have come from since April, which one week cannot show. A line begins at the issue its rung was first published.
03 · Trajectory
Every event year against this one, with the forecast fan carried forward. The bands are the spread, not a second opinion.
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04 · Provenance
What each source said, when it said it, and every caveat that governs a figure above. One register rather than three.