The Long Swell
Updated 2026-09-07

Where is the climate abnormal this week, and how bad?

Paris has had 15 times more hot days this summer than its 1961-1990 average.

Where, this week 17 drawn · 14 fire countries past their own record week · 38 crop countries with a region at a record low, against an average of 33 · ocean field observed 7 days to 2026-09-06
NIÑO 3.4  +2.7 °CBosnia and Herzegovina13.5x its average week · heaviest of 15 observed weeksUganda10.4x its average week · heaviest of 15 observed weeksMontenegro6.8x its average week · heaviest of 15 observed weeksRussia5.8x its average week · heaviest of 15 observed weeksPhilippines5.2x its average week · heaviest of 15 observed weeksSri Lanka3.9x its average week · heaviest of 15 observed weeksIndonesia3.6x its average week · heaviest of 15 observed weeksThailand3.4x its average week · heaviest of 15 observed weeksAngola5 of 18 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Peru4 of 24 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Sudan3 of 15 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Honduras3 of 17 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Philippines3 of 17 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Chad3 of 22 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Burundi3 of 15 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Rwanda3 of 22 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Viet Nam3 of 64 regions at a record low · each lowest of 2654 citiesaggregated · city records live on the Heat page

Only what clears a stated bar is drawn: fires at three times its own same-week mean or more, crops with three or more regions at a record low. 29 more crop countries and 4 more fire countries passed their own record without clearing it; each is counted on its channel page. Marks are sized within a channel, never across. How this is built →

The readings  ·  one slot per channel each row is its channel’s own selection, with its evidence beside it
Fires
Bosnia and Herzegovina  Well clear of its 2012 record week
13.5×
same-week mean · heaviest of 15 observed weeks
Heat
24 of 54 cities  More hot days than in any year on record
24
each against its own 95th percentile · at least 24 of 54 measured
Crops
Sudan  3 of its 15 regions at a record low
3 of 15
1st most stressed of 26 observations, 2001-2026
five of six instruments read together · dekad to 20 August
Chips mark attribution where a channel runs it. Fires does; Heat and Crops do not assess attribution, so the column is absent rather than empty. Fires, 15 countries →  ·  Heat, 54 cities →  ·  Crops, 38 countries →
The wave  ·  El Niño 2026-27 99% chance of a peak beyond +2.5 °C, 75% beyond +3.5 The +3.5 figure is ours, and no model produces it: five of six models put it at 88.2% or above and one at 0% or below, with none in between. CPC’s own table implies 53%. The smallest ensembles carry 10 members, so those figures move in 10-point steps. Niño 3.4 +2.7 °C · issue 2026-09-07 · the El Niño tracker →
Notes
Written by hand, about what the instruments are showing.
There is a great amount of data sitting in different databases, and getting an answer out of it is another thing entirely. So I started building that. How bad is it? · 10 August 2026 · read the note →
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Channels  ·  each reads one domain against its own baselines
El Niñothe winter peak, trackedweekly
Fireshotspots vs same-week baselinesdaily
Heatcity days and nights vs station recordsweekly
Cropscrop regions vs their own recordevery 10 days
Noteswritten by handoccasional
Floods, Econeach needs its own baseline first in development
Lepik, K. (2026). The Long Swell. thelongswell.com · every issue archived, immutable · disagreements surfaced, not averaged