Crops · dekad 2026-08-11

Zambia

2 of 9 crop regions in Zambia are at their worst on record for this point in the season. Its highest in any previous year was 1, on a recent average of 0.25.

One of Zambia's 9 crop regions has never looked worse than it does today.

Three instruments, 9 regions, one day. Each region against its own 26 years, never against another region.

Vegetation, current

1 of 9 regions at their own record

Zambia: 0.11 standard deviations below normal

North-Western. lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Northern. 5th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Luapula. 7th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Eastern. 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Lusaka. 21st lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Southern. 15th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Copperbelt. 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Western. 21st lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Central. 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Water satisfaction

0 of 9 regions at their own record

Zambia: 32% of crop water need met, normally 31%

North-Western. 4th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Northern. 13th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Luapula. 19th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Eastern. 18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Lusaka. 9th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Southern. 23rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Copperbelt. 12th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Western. 21st lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Central. 8th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Rainfall, 3-month

2 of 9 regions at their own record

Zambia: 0.54 standard deviations below normal

North-Western. 24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Northern. 2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Luapula. 16th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Eastern. lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Lusaka. 2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Southern. lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Copperbelt. 11th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Western. 17th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Central. 13th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Colour
at this region's normalfar below
Outline
A heavy outline is that region's worst in 26 years. Different facts: a region can be dark without an outline, meaning far from normal but it has been worse, or outlined without being darkest, a record but a narrow one.
One scale, three instruments
Every panel saturates at 2.5 standard deviations below that region's own normal, so a colour means the same distance-from-normal on all three. It does not mean the same consequence: these measure different things and move at different speeds. The figures under each heading stay in the instrument's own units.

A fourth instrument is not shown here. Cumulative vegetation, the crop-outcome measure closest to yield, reads 13th of 26 for this country with two regions at a record. It integrates from the start of the season, so it is structurally the last to move and reads calmest exactly when a fast deterioration is under way. It is left off the panels to keep three maps comparable in kind; it is on the page in full below.

Vegetation, cumulativethe harvest measure2of 9
Vegetation, current1of 9
Water satisfaction0of 9
Rainfall, 3-month2of 9
Temperature0of 9

What moved, and when

Each square is one dekad, and its shade shows how many of this country’s crop regions stood at their own worst on record for that point in the season. Rows are ordered by how much time each instrument summarises, shortest first, because a shorter window can move sooner. That order is fixed and is the same on every country page.

Vegetation, currentthis dekad
Soil moisturethis dekad
Temperaturethis dekad
Rainfall, 3-monththe past 3 months
Vegetation, cumulativethe season so far, from sowing
Water satisfactionthe season so far, as a water balance
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug
none at a recordone regionfewer than a thirda third to three quartersmost or alltoo few regions reporting to saynot reported
What connects these rows

Nothing we can show. The driver is not identified here. This section says what moved and when. It never says because.

These 23 dekads were picked rather than derived. A shorter window changes which peak looks like the first, and a sequence visible inside a window may not exist outside it.

How bad is it, against this country’s own record

Five instruments read together our combination, not an observation

11th worst (joint) of 26 years at this point in the season

The joint 11th most stressed of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026, across 5 instruments read together, level with 2016

2016202620012026

What the instruments say

The canopy is in the middle of its range, while water satisfaction is in their best third and rainfall is in their worst third.

Each track is that instrument’s own 26 years, worst on the left.

Vegetation, cumulative-0.0513th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.149th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction32%20th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.14lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature18.8 °C24th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Five instruments, each against its own 26 years for this point in the season. They are shown together because they can disagree: a region can sit at a record low on vegetation while water or rainfall sits in its best third. 38 of the 196 regions at a record low on current vegetation have water or rainfall sitting in its own best third at the same moment, about one in five. This page reports where each one sits and does not say what caused what.

Every region of Zambia, worst to least

Each bar is the full spread of that region’s previous 25 years at this point in the season. The dot is this year. A dot at the left of a wide bar and a dot at the left of a narrow bar are different findings, which is why the history is drawn rather than described.

its normalworsebetterNorth-WesternNorthernLuapulaEasternLusakaSouthernWesternCopperbeltCentral

Regions in colour are at their worst on record. The rest are placed on the same scale so a single deep region inside an otherwise ordinary country reads differently from a country where the whole distribution has moved.

North-Western

-2.58 lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-2.58lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-2.76lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction4%4th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+0.1224th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture is not defined for this region at this point in the season.
Temperature19.6 °C23rd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Northern

-1.63 lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-1.63lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.635th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction58%13th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.132nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature17.7 °C25th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Luapula

-0.97 7th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.977th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.467th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction61%19th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.1216th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature20.4 °C23rd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Eastern

-0.29 9th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.299th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-1.143rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction53%18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.75lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature19.6 °C24th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Lusaka

+0.09 15th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.0915th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.3221st lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction14%9th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.852nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature19.1 °C23rd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Southern

+0.25 16th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.2516th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.2715th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction26%23rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+0.69lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature19.0 °C23rd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Western

+0.32 19th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.3219th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.7321st lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction16%21st lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.1317th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature19.7 °C26th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Copperbelt

+0.38 19th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.3819th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.5726th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction7%12th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+0.2511th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature18.9 °C24th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Central

+0.58 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.5826th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.7126th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction10%8th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.0713th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature17.5 °C24th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

This measurement is of the crop canopy and not of what stressed it: heat, drought, disease and late planting are not separable here, which is why no claim on this page names a cause.

Kristjan Lepik (2026). The Long Swell, Crops. thelongswell.com