The Long Swell

Crops · dekad 2026-08-11

Mongolia

Mongolia is 13th most stressed of 26 observations for this point in the season, and rose over this window, ranking 22nd of 26 by fall steepness, from the 8th highest starting level of those 26. None of its 18 crop regions is at a record low on the measure that adds up the whole season, marked below, which is also the slowest of them to move.

No crop region in Mongolia is at its worst in 26 years for this point in the season.

Three instruments, 18 regions, one day. Each region against its own 26 years, never against another region.

Vegetation, current

0 of 18 regions at their own record

Mongolia: 1.31 standard deviations above normal

Arxangai. 19th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Xo'vsgol. 23rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Dornogovi. 8th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026O'vorxangai. 25th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Bulgan. 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Zavxan. 12th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Xovd. 17th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Xentii. 20th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Orxon. 25th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Uvs. 22nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Govi-Altai. 24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Su'xbaatar. 21st lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026To'v. 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Selenge. 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Bayan-O'lgii. 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Darxan-Uul. 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Dornod. 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Ulaanbaatar. 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Water satisfaction

0 of 18 regions at their own record

Mongolia: 41% of crop water need met, normally 44%

Arxangai. 9th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Xo'vsgol. 13th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Dornogovi. 8th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026O'vorxangai. 13th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Bulgan. 4th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Zavxan. 14th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Xovd. 7th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Xentii. 18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Orxon. 7th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Uvs. 8th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Govi-Altai. 14th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Su'xbaatar. 20th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026To'v. 6th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Selenge. 10th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Bayan-O'lgii. 9th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Darxan-Uul. 10th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Dornod. 18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Ulaanbaatar. 7th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Rainfall, 3-month

0 of 18 regions at their own record

Mongolia: 0.84 standard deviations below normal

Arxangai. 15th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Xo'vsgol. 7th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Dornogovi. 11th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026O'vorxangai. 15th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Bulgan. 2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Zavxan. 14th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Xovd. 11th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Xentii. 14th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Orxon. 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Uvs. 10th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Govi-Altai. 17th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Su'xbaatar. 14th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026To'v. 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Selenge. 9th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Bayan-O'lgii. 10th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Darxan-Uul. 6th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Dornod. 12th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Ulaanbaatar. 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Colour
at this region's normalfar below
Outline
A heavy outline is that region's worst in 26 years. Different facts: a region can be dark without an outline, meaning far from normal but it has been worse, or outlined without being darkest, a record but a narrow one.
One scale, three instruments
Every panel saturates at 2.5 standard deviations below that region's own normal, so a colour means the same distance-from-normal on all three. It does not mean the same consequence: these measure different things and move at different speeds. The figures under each heading stay in the instrument's own units.

A fourth instrument is not shown here. Cumulative vegetation, the crop-outcome measure closest to yield, reads 23rd of 26 for this country with no region at a record. It integrates from the start of the season, so it is structurally the last to move and reads calmest exactly when a fast deterioration is under way. It is left off the panels to keep three maps comparable in kind; it is on the page in full below.

Vegetation, cumulativethe harvest measure0of 18
Vegetation, current0of 18
Water satisfaction0of 18
Rainfall, 3-month0of 18
Temperature0of 18

What moved, and when

Each square is one dekad, and its shade shows how many of this country’s crop regions stood at their own worst on record for that point in the season. Rows are ordered by how much time each instrument summarises, shortest first, because a shorter window can move sooner. That order is fixed and is the same on every country page.

Vegetation, currentthis dekad
Soil moisturethis dekad
Temperaturethis dekad
Rainfall, 3-monththe past 3 months
Vegetation, cumulativethe season so far, from sowingalready elevated when this window opens, so nothing here shows when it began
Water satisfactionthe season so far, as a water balance
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug
none at a recordone regionfewer than a thirda third to three quartersmost or alltoo few regions reporting to saynot reported
What connects these rows

The driver is water. This section says what moved and when. It never says because.

These 23 dekads were picked rather than derived. A shorter window changes which peak looks like the first, and a sequence visible inside a window may not exist outside it.

How bad is it, against this country’s own record

Five instruments read together our combination, not an observation

13th worst of 26 years at this point in the season

The 13th most stressed of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026, across 5 instruments read together

202620012026

What the instruments say

The canopy is in its best third, while water satisfaction is in mid-range and rainfall is in their worst third.

Each track is that instrument’s own 26 years, worst on the left.

Vegetation, cumulative+0.7223rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+1.3226th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction41%10th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.686th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature17.4 °C12th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Five instruments, each against its own 26 years for this point in the season. They are shown together because they can disagree: a region can sit at a record low on vegetation while water or rainfall sits in its best third. 38 of the 196 regions at a record low on current vegetation have water or rainfall sitting in its own best third at the same moment, about one in five. This page reports where each one sits and does not say what caused what.

Every region of Mongolia, worst to least

Each bar is the full spread of that region’s previous 25 years at this point in the season. The dot is this year. A dot at the left of a wide bar and a dot at the left of a narrow bar are different findings, which is why the history is drawn rather than described.

its normalworsebetterArxangaiDornogoviXo'vsgolO'vorxangaiBulganXovdZavxanUvsGovi-AltaiXentiiTo'vOrxonSelengeSu'xbaatarDarxan-UulDornodUlaanbaatarBayan-O'lgii

Regions in colour are at their worst on record. The rest are placed on the same scale so a single deep region inside an otherwise ordinary country reads differently from a country where the whole distribution has moved.

Arxangai

-0.71 4th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.714th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.2819th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction43%9th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.0215th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature17.2 °C5th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Dornogovi

-0.33 13th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.3313th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.758th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction19%8th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.2811th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature23.8 °C7th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Xo'vsgol

-0.09 10th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.0910th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.6423rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction62%13th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.257th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature16.2 °C6th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

O'vorxangai

+0.04 13th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.0413th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+1.3225th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction38%13th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+0.0315th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature17.6 °C3rd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Bulgan

+0.20 15th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.2015th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.8826th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction43%4th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.082nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature17.0 °C7th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Xovd

+0.24 18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.2418th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.2517th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction12%7th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.9211th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature22.0 °C2nd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Zavxan

+0.28 16th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.2816th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.1112th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction36%14th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.0114th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature16.6 °C2nd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Uvs

+0.52 20th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.5220th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.7322nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction24%8th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.7710th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature20.1 °C4th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Govi-Altai

+0.53 23rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.5323rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+1.0724th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction9%14th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.0917th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature22.7 °C2nd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Xentii

+0.64 19th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.6419th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.6020th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction52%18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+0.2414th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature17.2 °C9th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

To'v

+0.76 23rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.7623rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+1.5526th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction34%6th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.203rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature17.2 °C11th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Orxon

+0.77 20th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.7720th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+1.0725th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction41%7th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.343rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature16.2 °C12th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Selenge

+0.79 24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.7924th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+1.4426th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction42%10th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.559th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature17.0 °C16th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Su'xbaatar

+0.82 23rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.8223rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.6121st lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction41%20th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+0.3814th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature19.8 °C4th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Darxan-Uul

+0.96 25th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.9625th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+1.7126th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction35%10th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.896th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature17.3 °C18th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Dornod

+0.98 25th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.9825th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+1.0226th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction45%18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+0.0812th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature20.1 °C7th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Ulaanbaatar

+1.25 25th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+1.2525th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+1.5226th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction38%7th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.123rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature15.3 °C13th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Bayan-O'lgii

+1.30 25th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+1.3025th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+2.0826th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction18%9th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.8910th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature18.9 °C2nd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

This measurement is of the crop canopy and not of what stressed it: heat, drought, disease and late planting are not separable here, which is why no claim on this page names a cause.

Kristjan Lepik (2026). The Long Swell, Crops. thelongswell.com