Crops · dekad 2026-08-11

Australia

Australia is 24th most stressed of 26 observations for this point in the season, and rose over this window, ranking 19th of 26 by fall steepness, from the 2nd highest starting level of those 26. None of its 8 crop regions is at a record low on the measure that adds up the whole season, marked below, which is also the slowest of them to move.

No crop region in Australia is at its worst in 26 years for this point in the season.

Three instruments, 8 regions, one day. Each region against its own 26 years, never against another region.

Vegetation, current

0 of 8 regions at their own record

Australia: 0.81 standard deviations above normal

North Territory. 12th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Queensland. 14th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Tasmania. 19th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Australian C.T.. 17th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026W Australia. 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026New South Wales. 23rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026South Australia. 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Victoria. 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Water satisfaction

0 of 8 regions at their own record

Australia: 90% of crop water need met, normally 84%

North Territory. 19th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Queensland. 9th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Tasmania. 5th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Australian C.T.. 18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026W Australia. 18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026New South Wales. 19th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026South Australia. 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Victoria. 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Rainfall, 3-month

0 of 8 regions at their own record

Australia: 0.52 standard deviations above normal

North Territory. 15th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Queensland. 11th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Tasmania. 23rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Australian C.T.. 19th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026W Australia. 9th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026New South Wales. 23rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026South Australia. 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Victoria. 24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Colour
at this region's normalfar below
Outline
A heavy outline is that region's worst in 26 years. Different facts: a region can be dark without an outline, meaning far from normal but it has been worse, or outlined without being darkest, a record but a narrow one.
One scale, three instruments
Every panel saturates at 2.5 standard deviations below that region's own normal, so a colour means the same distance-from-normal on all three. It does not mean the same consequence: these measure different things and move at different speeds. The figures under each heading stay in the instrument's own units.

A fourth instrument is not shown here. Cumulative vegetation, the crop-outcome measure closest to yield, reads 26th of 26 for this country with no region at a record. It integrates from the start of the season, so it is structurally the last to move and reads calmest exactly when a fast deterioration is under way. It is left off the panels to keep three maps comparable in kind; it is on the page in full below.

Vegetation, cumulativethe harvest measure0of 8
Vegetation, current0of 8
Water satisfaction0of 8
Rainfall, 3-month0of 8
Temperature0of 8

What moved, and when

Each square is one dekad, and its shade shows how many of this country’s crop regions stood at their own worst on record for that point in the season. Rows are ordered by how much time each instrument summarises, shortest first, because a shorter window can move sooner. That order is fixed and is the same on every country page.

Vegetation, currentthis dekad
Soil moisturethis dekadalready elevated when this window opens, so nothing here shows when it began
Temperaturethis dekad
Rainfall, 3-monththe past 3 months
Vegetation, cumulativethe season so far, from sowing
Water satisfactionthe season so far, as a water balance
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug
none at a recordone regionfewer than a thirda third to three quartersmost or alltoo few regions reporting to saynot reported
What connects these rows

The driver is water. This section says what moved and when. It never says because.

These 23 dekads were picked rather than derived. A shorter window changes which peak looks like the first, and a sequence visible inside a window may not exist outside it.

How bad is it, against this country’s own record

Five instruments read together our combination, not an observation

24th worst of 26 years at this point in the season

The 24th most stressed of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026, across 5 instruments read together

202620012026

What the instruments say

The canopy is in its best third, as are water satisfaction and rainfall.

Each track is that instrument’s own 26 years, worst on the left.

Vegetation, cumulative+0.8326th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.8426th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction90%23rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+0.4223rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature11.9 °C5th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Five instruments, each against its own 26 years for this point in the season. They are shown together because they can disagree: a region can sit at a record low on vegetation while water or rainfall sits in its best third. 38 of the 196 regions at a record low on current vegetation have water or rainfall sitting in its own best third at the same moment, about one in five. This page reports where each one sits and does not say what caused what.

Every region of Australia, worst to least

Each bar is the full spread of that region’s previous 25 years at this point in the season. The dot is this year. A dot at the left of a wide bar and a dot at the left of a narrow bar are different findings, which is why the history is drawn rather than described.

its normalworsebetterNorth TerritoryQueenslandTasmaniaW AustraliaNew South WalesAustralian C.T.South AustraliaVictoria

Regions in colour are at their worst on record. The rest are placed on the same scale so a single deep region inside an otherwise ordinary country reads differently from a country where the whole distribution has moved.

North Territory

-0.48 4th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.484th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.0912th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction47%19th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.2915th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature25.1 °C6th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Queensland

-0.03 10th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.0310th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.0514th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction55%9th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.3211th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature14.8 °C16th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Tasmania

+0.10 14th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.1014th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.1919th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction98%5th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+0.7623rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature8.9 °C4th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

W Australia

+0.63 22nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.6322nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.8226th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction88%18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.379th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature11.7 °C13th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

New South Wales

+0.64 23rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.6423rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.6523rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction90%19th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+0.8123rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature12.1 °C3rd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Australian C.T.

+0.74 22nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.7422nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.3417th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction89%18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+0.4119th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature7.9 °C2nd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

South Australia

+1.37 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+1.3726th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+1.1926th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction99%26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+1.4126th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature11.8 °C7th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Victoria

+1.45 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+1.4526th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+1.2226th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction99%26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+1.1124th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature11.1 °C3rd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

This measurement is of the crop canopy and not of what stressed it: heat, drought, disease and late planting are not separable here, which is why no claim on this page names a cause.

Kristjan Lepik (2026). The Long Swell, Crops. thelongswell.com