Crops · dekad 2026-08-11

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is 13th most stressed of 26 observations for this point in the season, and 5th steepest fall of 26. None of its 15 crop regions is at a record low on the measure that adds up the whole season, marked below, which is also the slowest of them to move.

One of Kazakhstan's 15 crop regions has never looked worse than it does today.

Three instruments, 15 regions, one day. Each region against its own 26 years, never against another region.

Vegetation, current

1 of 15 regions at their own record

Kazakhstan: 0.02 standard deviations below normal

Karagandinskaya. lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Vostochno. 2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Almaty City area. 2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Pavlodarskaya. 14th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Atyrauskaya. 17th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Akmolinskaya. 10th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Almatinskaya. 14th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Kyzylordinskaya. 8th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Severo. 12th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Kustanayskaya. 15th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Mangistauskaya. 18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Jambylslkaya. 15th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Yujno K.. 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Zapadno K.. 21st lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Aktyubinskaya. 22nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Water satisfaction

0 of 15 regions at their own record

Kazakhstan: 44% of crop water need met, normally 46%

Karagandinskaya. 2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Vostochno. 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Almaty City area. 21st lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Pavlodarskaya. 6th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Atyrauskaya. 20th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Akmolinskaya. 9th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Almatinskaya. 11th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Kyzylordinskaya. 22nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Severo. 11th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Kustanayskaya. 17th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Mangistauskaya. 24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Jambylslkaya. 19th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Yujno K.. 20th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Zapadno K.. 22nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Aktyubinskaya. 24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Rainfall, 3-month

0 of 15 regions at their own record

Kazakhstan: 0.38 standard deviations above normal

Karagandinskaya. 8th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Vostochno. 4th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Almaty City area. 24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Pavlodarskaya. 8th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Atyrauskaya. 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Akmolinskaya. 10th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Almatinskaya. 21st lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Kyzylordinskaya. 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Severo. 19th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Kustanayskaya. 20th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Mangistauskaya. 18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Jambylslkaya. 25th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Yujno K.. 24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Zapadno K.. 24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Aktyubinskaya. 24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Colour
at this region's normalfar below
Outline
A heavy outline is that region's worst in 26 years. Different facts: a region can be dark without an outline, meaning far from normal but it has been worse, or outlined without being darkest, a record but a narrow one.
One scale, three instruments
Every panel saturates at 2.5 standard deviations below that region's own normal, so a colour means the same distance-from-normal on all three. It does not mean the same consequence: these measure different things and move at different speeds. The figures under each heading stay in the instrument's own units.

A fourth instrument is not shown here. Cumulative vegetation, the crop-outcome measure closest to yield, reads 19th of 26 for this country with no region at a record. It integrates from the start of the season, so it is structurally the last to move and reads calmest exactly when a fast deterioration is under way. It is left off the panels to keep three maps comparable in kind; it is on the page in full below.

Vegetation, cumulativethe harvest measure0of 15
Vegetation, current1of 15
Water satisfaction0of 15
Rainfall, 3-month0of 15
Temperature4of 15

What moved, and when

Each square is one dekad, and its shade shows how many of this country’s crop regions stood at their own worst on record for that point in the season. Rows are ordered by how much time each instrument summarises, shortest first, because a shorter window can move sooner. That order is fixed and is the same on every country page.

Vegetation, currentthis dekad
Soil moisturethis dekad
Temperaturethis dekad
Rainfall, 3-monththe past 3 months
Vegetation, cumulativethe season so far, from sowing
Water satisfactionthe season so far, as a water balance
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug
none at a recordone regionfewer than a thirda third to three quartersmost or alltoo few regions reporting to saynot reported
What connects these rows

The driver is water. This section says what moved and when. It never says because.

These 23 dekads were picked rather than derived. A shorter window changes which peak looks like the first, and a sequence visible inside a window may not exist outside it.

How bad is it, against this country’s own record

Five instruments read together our combination, not an observation

13th worst of 26 years at this point in the season

The 13th most stressed of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026, across 5 instruments read together

202620012026

What the instruments say

The canopy is in its best third, while water satisfaction is in mid-range and rainfall is in their best third.

Each track is that instrument’s own 26 years, worst on the left.

Vegetation, cumulative+0.4019th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.0013th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction44%12th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+0.2818th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature21.4 °C7th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Five instruments, each against its own 26 years for this point in the season. They are shown together because they can disagree: a region can sit at a record low on vegetation while water or rainfall sits in its best third. 38 of the 196 regions at a record low on current vegetation have water or rainfall sitting in its own best third at the same moment, about one in five. This page reports where each one sits and does not say what caused what.

Every region of Kazakhstan, worst to least

Each bar is the full spread of that region’s previous 25 years at this point in the season. The dot is this year. A dot at the left of a wide bar and a dot at the left of a narrow bar are different findings, which is why the history is drawn rather than described.

its normalworsebetterKaragandinskayaAlmaty City areaVostochnoAtyrauskayaPavlodarskayaKyzylordinskayaAlmatinskayaAkmolinskayaSeveroJambylslkayaKustanayskayaMangistauskayaYujno K.AktyubinskayaZapadno K.

Regions in colour are at their worst on record. The rest are placed on the same scale so a single deep region inside an otherwise ordinary country reads differently from a country where the whole distribution has moved.

Karagandinskaya

-0.96 4th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.964th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-1.19lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction30%2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.518th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature21.5 °C4th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Almaty City area

-0.44 8th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.448th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.992nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction52%21st lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+1.2224th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature27.9 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Vostochno

-0.41 6th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.416th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.672nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction34%3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.984th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature23.6 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Atyrauskaya

-0.29 11th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.2911th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.0017th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction18%20th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+2.2726th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature26.3 °C13th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Pavlodarskaya

-0.11 10th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.1110th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.0814th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction35%6th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.548th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature21.2 °C4th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Kyzylordinskaya

+0.10 19th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.1019th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.108th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction10%22nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+2.3226th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature29.9 °C2nd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Almatinskaya

+0.10 15th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.1015th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.2214th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction35%11th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+0.5121st lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature26.5 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Akmolinskaya

+0.22 14th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.2214th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.2510th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction36%9th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.2910th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature20.6 °C9th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Severo

+0.55 19th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.5519th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.1012th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction58%11th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+0.5419th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature19.3 °C10th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Jambylslkaya

+0.59 24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.5924th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.0615th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction38%19th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+1.7025th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature27.1 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Kustanayskaya

+0.66 21st lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.6621st lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.2015th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction51%17th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+0.3920th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature19.6 °C15th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Mangistauskaya

+1.07 21st lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+1.0721st lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.3618th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction18%24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+0.1718th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature25.5 °C19th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Yujno K.

+1.11 25th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+1.1125th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.8626th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction24%20th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+1.7524th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature30.2 °C2nd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Aktyubinskaya

+1.22 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+1.2226th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.7422nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction53%24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+1.1624th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature21.5 °C15th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Zapadno K.

+1.27 25th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+1.2725th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.5221st lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction46%22nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+0.7024th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature21.5 °C20th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

This measurement is of the crop canopy and not of what stressed it: heat, drought, disease and late planting are not separable here, which is why no claim on this page names a cause.

Kristjan Lepik (2026). The Long Swell, Crops. thelongswell.com