Crops · dekad 2026-09-01

Ethiopia

Ethiopia is 1st most stressed of 26 observations for this point in the season, and 6th steepest fall of 26, but from the 9th highest starting level of those 26, so it is not a record fall once that is accounted for. None of its 13 crop regions is at a record low on the measure that adds up the whole season, marked below, which is also the slowest of them to move.

Vegetation, cumulativethe harvest measure0of 13
Vegetation, current7of 13
Water satisfaction5of 13
Rainfall, 3-month10of 13
Temperature11of 13

What moved, and when

Each square is one dekad, and its shade shows how many of this country’s crop regions stood at their own worst on record for that point in the season. Rows are ordered by how much time each instrument summarises, shortest first, because a shorter window can move sooner. That order is fixed and is the same on every country page.

Vegetation, currentthis dekad
Soil moisturethis dekad
Temperaturethis dekad
Rainfall, 3-monththe past 3 months
Vegetation, cumulativethe season so far, from sowing
Water satisfactionthe season so far, as a water balance
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep
none at a recordone regionfewer than a thirda third to three quartersmost or alltoo few regions reporting to saynot reported
What connects these rows

The driver is water. This section says what moved and when. It never says because.

These 25 dekads were picked rather than derived. A shorter window changes which peak looks like the first, and a sequence visible inside a window may not exist outside it.

How bad is it, against this country’s own record

Five instruments read together our combination, not an observation

worst on record of 26 years at this point in the season

The most stressed of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026, across 5 instruments read together

202620012026

What the instruments say

The canopy is in the middle of its range, while water satisfaction and rainfall are in their worst third.

Each track is that instrument’s own 26 years, worst on the left.

Vegetation, cumulative+0.0816th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.0211th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction94%lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-2.15lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature17.8 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Five instruments, each against its own 26 years for this point in the season. They are shown together because they can disagree: a region can sit at a record low on vegetation while water or rainfall sits in its best third. 66 of the 440 regions at a record low on current vegetation have water or rainfall sitting in its own best third at the same moment, about one in seven. This page reports where each one sits and does not say what caused what.

Every region of Ethiopia, worst to least

Each bar is the full spread of that region’s previous 25 years at this point in the season. The dot is this year. A dot at the left of a wide bar and a dot at the left of a narrow bar are different findings, which is why the history is drawn rather than described.

its normalworsebetterAfarTigrayDire DawaSomaliGambelaSouth West E.AmharaSnnpAddis AbabaHarariOromiaSidamaBenishangul Gumz

Regions in colour are at their worst on record. The rest are placed on the same scale so a single deep region inside an otherwise ordinary country reads differently from a country where the whole distribution has moved.

Afar

-0.95 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.953rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.923rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction49%2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.76lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature31.5 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Tigray

-0.70 2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.702nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.0412th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction91%lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-2.43lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature21.1 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Dire Dawa

-0.50 7th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.507th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-1.98lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction53%lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-3.08lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature23.2 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Somali

-0.28 12th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.2812th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-1.26lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction43%lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.492nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature22.3 °C2nd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Gambela

-0.21 8th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.218th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-1.52lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction94%3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.982nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature27.6 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

South West E.

-0.19 9th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.199th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.82lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction96%lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.86lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature18.6 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Amhara

-0.16 10th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.1610th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.6626th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction96%lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-2.46lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature17.3 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Snnp

+0.20 16th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.2016th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.62lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction95%2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-2.09lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature17.6 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Addis Ababa

+0.25 18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.2518th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.0417th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction99%6th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-2.032nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature15.0 °C2nd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Harari

+0.25 18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.2518th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-1.88lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction72%2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-2.25lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature21.3 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Oromia

+0.34 24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.3424th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.235th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction94%2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.97lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature17.2 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Sidama

+0.41 22nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.4122nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-1.32lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction94%2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-2.21lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature16.0 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Benishangul Gumz

+0.83 25th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.8325th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.385th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction100%24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.48lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature21.9 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

This measurement is of the crop canopy and not of what stressed it: heat, drought, disease and late planting are not separable here, which is why no claim on this page names a cause.

Kristjan Lepik (2026). The Long Swell, Crops. thelongswell.com