Crops · dekad 2026-10-21

Ethiopia

1 of 13 crop regions in Ethiopia are at their worst on record for this point in the season. Its highest in any previous year was 3, on a recent average of 0.42.

Vegetation, cumulativethe harvest measure1of 13
Vegetation, current1of 13
Water satisfaction1of 13
Rainfall, 3-month6of 13
Temperature6of 13

What moved, and when

Each square is one dekad, and its shade shows how many of this country’s crop regions stood at their own worst on record for that point in the season. Rows are ordered by how much time each instrument summarises, shortest first, because a shorter window can move sooner. That order is fixed and is the same on every country page.

Vegetation, currentthis dekad
Soil moisturethis dekad
Temperaturethis dekad
Rainfall, 3-monththe past 3 months
Vegetation, cumulativethe season so far, from sowing
Water satisfactionthe season so far, as a water balance
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep
none at a recordone regionfewer than a thirda third to three quartersmost or alltoo few regions reporting to saynot reported
What connects these rows

The driver is water. This section says what moved and when. It never says because.

These 25 dekads were picked rather than derived. A shorter window changes which peak looks like the first, and a sequence visible inside a window may not exist outside it.

How bad is it, against this country’s own record

Five instruments read together our combination, not an observation

2nd worst of 26 years at this point in the season

The 2nd most stressed of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026, across 5 instruments read together

202620012026

What the instruments say

The canopy is in its worst third, as are water satisfaction and rainfall.

Each track is that instrument’s own 26 years, worst on the left.

Vegetation, cumulative-0.139th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.425th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction75%2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.24lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 2 dekads behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature20.6 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Five instruments, each against its own 26 years for this point in the season. They are shown together because they can disagree: a region can sit at a record low on vegetation while water or rainfall sits in its best third. 37 of the 238 regions at a record low on current vegetation have water or rainfall sitting in its own best third at the same moment, about one in six. This page reports where each one sits and does not say what caused what.

Every region of Ethiopia, worst to least

Each bar is the full spread of that region’s previous 25 years at this point in the season. The dot is this year. A dot at the left of a wide bar and a dot at the left of a narrow bar are different findings, which is why the history is drawn rather than described.

its normalworsebetterGambelaAfarDire DawaSnnpSouth West E.TigrayHarariSomaliSidamaAddis AbabaOromiaAmharaBenishangul Gumz

Regions in colour are at their worst on record. The rest are placed on the same scale so a single deep region inside an otherwise ordinary country reads differently from a country where the whole distribution has moved.

Gambela

-0.79 lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.79lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.468th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction92%2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.752nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 2 dekads behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature25.7 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Afar

-0.78 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.783rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.594th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction31%2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.07lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 2 dekads behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature27.2 °C5th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Dire Dawa

-0.76 5th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.765th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-1.044th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction45%2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.692nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 2 dekads behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature22.0 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Snnp

-0.37 7th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.377th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.942nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction91%3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.63lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 2 dekads behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature19.3 °C2nd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

South West E.

-0.36 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.363rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.189th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction96%lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.25lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 2 dekads behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature19.0 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Tigray

-0.35 5th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.355th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.467th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction63%3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.07lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 2 dekads behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature21.5 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Harari

-0.27 12th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.2712th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-1.61lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction63%3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.825th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 2 dekads behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature20.9 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Somali

-0.26 10th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.2610th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.426th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction51%16th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month+0.1817th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 2 dekads behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature22.3 °C5th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Sidama

-0.11 8th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.118th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.149th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction95%5th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-2.03lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 2 dekads behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature15.7 °C8th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Addis Ababa

+0.26 20th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.2620th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.716th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction80%7th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.692nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 2 dekads behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature15.3 °C7th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Oromia

+0.47 25th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.4725th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.1818th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction88%4th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.993rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 2 dekads behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature17.6 °C2nd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Amhara

+0.71 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.7126th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.8323rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction83%14th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.724th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 2 dekads behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature17.9 °C2nd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Benishangul Gumz

+0.88 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.8826th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.0112th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction99%10th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.67lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 2 dekads behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature23.2 °Chighest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

This measurement is of the crop canopy and not of what stressed it: heat, drought, disease and late planting are not separable here, which is why no claim on this page names a cause.

Kristjan Lepik (2026). The Long Swell, Crops. thelongswell.com