Crops · dekad 2026-08-11

Mozambique

Mozambique is 8th most stressed of 26 observations for this point in the season, and 2nd steepest fall of 26. None of its 11 crop regions is at a record low on the measure that adds up the whole season, marked below, which is also the slowest of them to move.

No crop region in Mozambique is at its worst in 26 years for this point in the season.

Three instruments, 11 regions, one day. Each region against its own 26 years, never against another region.

Vegetation, current

0 of 11 regions at their own record

Mozambique: 0.56 standard deviations below normal

Maputo. 15th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Zambezia. 2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Niassa. 4th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Lago niassa. 25th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Cabo Delgado. 16th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Gaza. 24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Nampula. 6th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Sofala. 9th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Manica. 15th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Inhambane. 16th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Tete. 13th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Water satisfaction

0 of 11 regions at their own record

Mozambique: 63% of crop water need met, normally 62%

Maputo. 24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Zambezia. 12th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Niassa. 19th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Lago niassa. 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Cabo Delgado. 12th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Gaza. 25th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Nampula. 8th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Sofala. 18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Manica. 23rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Inhambane. 24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Tete. 18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Rainfall, 3-month

1 of 11 regions at their own record

Mozambique: 1.11 standard deviations below normal

Maputo. 4th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Zambezia. 4th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Niassa. 6th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Lago niassa. 11th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Cabo Delgado. lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Gaza. 4th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Nampula. 2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Sofala. 4th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Manica. 5th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Inhambane. 11th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Tete. 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Colour
at this region's normalfar below
Outline
A heavy outline is that region's worst in 26 years. Different facts: a region can be dark without an outline, meaning far from normal but it has been worse, or outlined without being darkest, a record but a narrow one.
One scale, three instruments
Every panel saturates at 2.5 standard deviations below that region's own normal, so a colour means the same distance-from-normal on all three. It does not mean the same consequence: these measure different things and move at different speeds. The figures under each heading stay in the instrument's own units.

A fourth instrument is not shown here. Cumulative vegetation, the crop-outcome measure closest to yield, reads 11th of 26 for this country with no region at a record. It integrates from the start of the season, so it is structurally the last to move and reads calmest exactly when a fast deterioration is under way. It is left off the panels to keep three maps comparable in kind; it is on the page in full below.

Vegetation, cumulativethe harvest measure0of 11
Vegetation, current0of 11
Water satisfaction0of 11
Rainfall, 3-month1of 11
Temperature0of 11

What moved, and when

Each square is one dekad, and its shade shows how many of this country’s crop regions stood at their own worst on record for that point in the season. Rows are ordered by how much time each instrument summarises, shortest first, because a shorter window can move sooner. That order is fixed and is the same on every country page.

Vegetation, currentthis dekad
Soil moisturethis dekad
Temperaturethis dekad
Rainfall, 3-monththe past 3 months
Vegetation, cumulativethe season so far, from sowing
Water satisfactionthe season so far, as a water balance
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug
none at a recordone regionfewer than a thirda third to three quartersmost or alltoo few regions reporting to saynot reported
What connects these rows

Nothing we can show. The driver is not identified here. This section says what moved and when. It never says because.

These 23 dekads were picked rather than derived. A shorter window changes which peak looks like the first, and a sequence visible inside a window may not exist outside it.

How bad is it, against this country’s own record

Five instruments read together our combination, not an observation

8th worst (joint) of 26 years at this point in the season

The joint 8th most stressed of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026, across 5 instruments read together, level with 2016

2016202620012026

What the instruments say

The canopy is in the middle of its range, while water satisfaction is in mid-range and rainfall is in their worst third.

Each track is that instrument’s own 26 years, worst on the left.

Vegetation, cumulative-0.0611th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.565th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction63%16th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.10lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature21.2 °C23rd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Five instruments, each against its own 26 years for this point in the season. They are shown together because they can disagree: a region can sit at a record low on vegetation while water or rainfall sits in its best third. 38 of the 196 regions at a record low on current vegetation have water or rainfall sitting in its own best third at the same moment, about one in five. This page reports where each one sits and does not say what caused what.

Every region of Mozambique, worst to least

Each bar is the full spread of that region’s previous 25 years at this point in the season. The dot is this year. A dot at the left of a wide bar and a dot at the left of a narrow bar are different findings, which is why the history is drawn rather than described.

its normalworsebetterMaputoNiassaZambeziaLago niassaCabo DelgadoManicaGazaNampulaSofalaInhambaneTete

Regions in colour are at their worst on record. The rest are placed on the same scale so a single deep region inside an otherwise ordinary country reads differently from a country where the whole distribution has moved.

Maputo

-0.91 2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.912nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.0715th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction66%24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.904th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature18.1 °C26th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Niassa

-0.68 6th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.686th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.914th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction58%19th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.486th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature20.5 °C16th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Zambezia

-0.64 4th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.644th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-1.242nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction73%12th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.904th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature19.9 °C24th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Lago niassa

-0.19 8th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.198th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+1.2125th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction62%3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.4611th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture is not defined for this region at this point in the season.
Temperature21.5 °C21st highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Cabo Delgado

-0.08 11th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.0811th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.1016th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction56%12th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.76lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature23.3 °C8th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Manica

+0.11 17th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.1117th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.1115th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction63%23rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.655th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature19.0 °C23rd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Gaza

+0.13 13th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.1313th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+1.0624th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction70%25th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.974th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature19.0 °C25th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Nampula

+0.17 16th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.1716th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.556th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction59%8th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.302nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature22.0 °C21st highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Sofala

+0.22 16th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.2216th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.479th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction68%18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.924th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature21.0 °C24th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Inhambane

+0.35 18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Vegetation here usually tracks water availability.

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.3518th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.3316th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction62%24th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.4111th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature19.4 °C24th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Tete

+0.80 26th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.8026th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.0013th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction61%18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-1.093rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature21.4 °C24th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

This measurement is of the crop canopy and not of what stressed it: heat, drought, disease and late planting are not separable here, which is why no claim on this page names a cause.

Kristjan Lepik (2026). The Long Swell, Crops. thelongswell.com