Crops · dekad 2026-08-11
Malawi
Malawi is 11th most stressed of 26 observations for this point in the season, and 2nd steepest fall of 26, but from the 9th highest starting level of those 26, so it is not a record fall once that is accounted for. None of its 4 crop regions is at a record low on the measure that adds up the whole season, marked below, which is also the slowest of them to move.
No crop region in Malawi is at its worst in 26 years for this point in the season.
Three instruments, 4 regions, one day. Each region against its own 26 years, never against another region.
Vegetation, current
0 of 4 regions at their own record
Malawi: 0.32 standard deviations below normal
Water satisfaction
0 of 4 regions at their own record
Malawi: 62% of crop water need met, normally 63%
Rainfall, 3-month
0 of 4 regions at their own record
Malawi: 1.10 standard deviations below normal
A heavy outline is that region's worst in 26 years. Different facts: a region can be dark without an outline, meaning far from normal but it has been worse, or outlined without being darkest, a record but a narrow one.
Every panel saturates at 2.5 standard deviations below that region's own normal, so a colour means the same distance-from-normal on all three. It does not mean the same consequence: these measure different things and move at different speeds. The figures under each heading stay in the instrument's own units.
A fourth instrument is not shown here and it disagrees with these three. Cumulative vegetation, the crop-outcome measure closest to yield, reads 12th of 26 for this country with no region at a record. It integrates from the start of the season, so it is structurally the last to move and reads calmest exactly when a fast deterioration is under way. It is left off the panels because it is close to normal, so it renders almost blank, and an empty map looks like a missing one. Stated here rather than dropped silently, since without it these panels look worse than the full picture.
What moved, and when
Each square is one dekad, and its shade shows how many of this country’s crop regions stood at their own worst on record for that point in the season. Rows are ordered by how much time each instrument summarises, shortest first, because a shorter window can move sooner. That order is fixed and is the same on every country page.
Nothing we can show. The driver is not identified here. This section says what moved and when. It never says because.
These 23 dekads were picked rather than derived. A shorter window changes which peak looks like the first, and a sequence visible inside a window may not exist outside it.
How bad is it, against this country’s own record
Five instruments read together our combination, not an observation
11th worst of 26 years at this point in the season
The 11th most stressed of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026, across 5 instruments read together
- Every input is measured against its own record, but no source publishes this average. It is our combination, not an observation.
- This value places the country against itself, so it does not rank countries against each other. Its year-to-year spread here is 0.193, and that spread differs by place, so a higher value elsewhere can be a less unusual year than this one. The rank is the comparable figure.
- A reading of conditions to date. It carries no statement about the rest of the season.
What the instruments say
The canopy is in the middle of its range, while water satisfaction and rainfall are in their worst third.
Each track is that instrument’s own 26 years, worst on the left.
Five instruments, each against its own 26 years for this point in the season. They are shown together because they can disagree: a region can sit at a record low on vegetation while water or rainfall sits in its best third. 38 of the 196 regions at a record low on current vegetation have water or rainfall sitting in its own best third at the same moment, about one in five. This page reports where each one sits and does not say what caused what.
Every region of Malawi, worst to least
Each bar is the full spread of that region’s previous 25 years at this point in the season. The dot is this year. A dot at the left of a wide bar and a dot at the left of a narrow bar are different findings, which is why the history is drawn rather than described.
Regions in colour are at their worst on record. The rest are placed on the same scale so a single deep region inside an otherwise ordinary country reads differently from a country where the whole distribution has moved.
Northern Region
-0.77 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
same dekad, 2001-2025
Central Region
+0.06 14th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
same dekad, 2001-2025
Area under NA
+0.11 15th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
same dekad, 2001-2025
Southern Region
+0.37 18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
same dekad, 2001-2025
This measurement is of the crop canopy and not of what stressed it: heat, drought, disease and late planting are not separable here, which is why no claim on this page names a cause.