Crops · dekad 2026-08-11

Malawi

Malawi is 11th most stressed of 26 observations for this point in the season, and 2nd steepest fall of 26, but from the 9th highest starting level of those 26, so it is not a record fall once that is accounted for. None of its 4 crop regions is at a record low on the measure that adds up the whole season, marked below, which is also the slowest of them to move.

No crop region in Malawi is at its worst in 26 years for this point in the season.

Three instruments, 4 regions, one day. Each region against its own 26 years, never against another region.

Vegetation, current

0 of 4 regions at their own record

Malawi: 0.32 standard deviations below normal

Northern Region. 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Central Region. 8th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Area under NA. 15th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Southern Region. 8th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Water satisfaction

0 of 4 regions at their own record

Malawi: 62% of crop water need met, normally 63%

Northern Region. 2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Central Region. 7th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Area under NA. 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Southern Region. 16th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Rainfall, 3-month

0 of 4 regions at their own record

Malawi: 1.10 standard deviations below normal

Northern Region. 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Central Region. 2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Area under NA. 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026Southern Region. 5th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Colour
at this region's normalfar below
Outline
A heavy outline is that region's worst in 26 years. Different facts: a region can be dark without an outline, meaning far from normal but it has been worse, or outlined without being darkest, a record but a narrow one.
One scale, three instruments
Every panel saturates at 2.5 standard deviations below that region's own normal, so a colour means the same distance-from-normal on all three. It does not mean the same consequence: these measure different things and move at different speeds. The figures under each heading stay in the instrument's own units.

A fourth instrument is not shown here and it disagrees with these three. Cumulative vegetation, the crop-outcome measure closest to yield, reads 12th of 26 for this country with no region at a record. It integrates from the start of the season, so it is structurally the last to move and reads calmest exactly when a fast deterioration is under way. It is left off the panels because it is close to normal, so it renders almost blank, and an empty map looks like a missing one. Stated here rather than dropped silently, since without it these panels look worse than the full picture.

Vegetation, cumulativethe harvest measure0of 4
Vegetation, current0of 4
Water satisfaction0of 4
Rainfall, 3-month0of 4
Temperature0of 4

What moved, and when

Each square is one dekad, and its shade shows how many of this country’s crop regions stood at their own worst on record for that point in the season. Rows are ordered by how much time each instrument summarises, shortest first, because a shorter window can move sooner. That order is fixed and is the same on every country page.

Vegetation, currentthis dekad
Soil moisturethis dekad
Temperaturethis dekad
Rainfall, 3-monththe past 3 months
Vegetation, cumulativethe season so far, from sowing
Water satisfactionthe season so far, as a water balance
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug
none at a recordone regionfewer than a thirda third to three quartersmost or alltoo few regions reporting to saynot reported
What connects these rows

Nothing we can show. The driver is not identified here. This section says what moved and when. It never says because.

These 23 dekads were picked rather than derived. A shorter window changes which peak looks like the first, and a sequence visible inside a window may not exist outside it.

How bad is it, against this country’s own record

Five instruments read together our combination, not an observation

11th worst of 26 years at this point in the season

The 11th most stressed of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026, across 5 instruments read together

202620012026

What the instruments say

The canopy is in the middle of its range, while water satisfaction and rainfall are in their worst third.

Each track is that instrument’s own 26 years, worst on the left.

Vegetation, cumulative+0.0012th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.327th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction62%9th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.803rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature20.1 °C23rd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

Five instruments, each against its own 26 years for this point in the season. They are shown together because they can disagree: a region can sit at a record low on vegetation while water or rainfall sits in its best third. 38 of the 196 regions at a record low on current vegetation have water or rainfall sitting in its own best third at the same moment, about one in five. This page reports where each one sits and does not say what caused what.

Every region of Malawi, worst to least

Each bar is the full spread of that region’s previous 25 years at this point in the season. The dot is this year. A dot at the left of a wide bar and a dot at the left of a narrow bar are different findings, which is why the history is drawn rather than described.

its normalworsebetterNorthern RegionCentral RegionArea under NASouthern Region

Regions in colour are at their worst on record. The rest are placed on the same scale so a single deep region inside an otherwise ordinary country reads differently from a country where the whole distribution has moved.

Northern Region

-0.77 3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative-0.773rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.673rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction61%2nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.723rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature19.1 °C21st highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Central Region

+0.06 14th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.0614th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.218th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction62%7th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.832nd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature20.5 °C20th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Area under NA

+0.11 15th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.1115th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current+0.3115th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction73%3rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.593rd lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature21.5 °C22nd highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

Southern Region

+0.37 18th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

20012026
Vegetation, cumulative+0.3718th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Vegetation, current-0.278th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Water satisfaction63%16th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Rainfall, 3-month-0.805th lowest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026
Soil moisturenot reportedSoil moisture has not reported for this dekad. Its newest observation is 1 dekad behind the crop-outcome instrument.
Temperature20.0 °C24th highest of 26 observations for this point in the season, 2001-2026

same dekad, 2001-2025

This measurement is of the crop canopy and not of what stressed it: heat, drought, disease and late planting are not separable here, which is why no claim on this page names a cause.

Kristjan Lepik (2026). The Long Swell, Crops. thelongswell.com