Kazakhstan · 25 to 31 October

Kazakhstan had its second-heaviest fire week for this point in the year, of 15 compared

Two questions, side by side. How bad was this week, measured against every week like it. How bad is the year, measured against every season on record. Different instruments, different units, and one of them is not finished.

This week · 25 to 31 October

2.1×

active-fire detections against the same-week mean of 1,144, 2012 to 2025
NASA FIRMS SNPP VIIRS, daily, 375 m
Cleared the anomaly gate for this week. Standardised anomaly z = +1.4

Against the same week, every year

same-week mean 1,144201220262,429

Each year’s detections in the same window of the year, same sensor throughout.

The seven days

25262728293031one seventh of a normal week, 163

7 of 7 days cleared one seventh of a normal week. The peak, 513 on 31 October, is 3 times that line.

This year · since 1 January

712,871 ha

burnt area mapped, 0.3× the average for this point in the year
GWIS mapped perimeters, weekly, week 43, through 2026-10-28

Cumulative, every season since 2012

03.4MJanJulDecprevious record, 2017: 6,238,361 ha2026

Only this year carries hue; every grey line is one earlier season accumulating from January. The record season, 2017, reached 6,238,361 ha.

Week by week, 2026 so far

JanAprJulOctDec84,480 ha in week 1243 weeks in, 9 still to come

Week by week rather than cumulative, so a single heavy week is visible as one. The cell runs to week 52: 9 weeks of this season have not happened yet.

What this is

Two measurements of the same fire season at two time scales. The multiple is a rate: how much fire activity satellites detected this week against what this week normally looks like. The hectare figure is a stock: how much land has been mapped as burnt since January. A country can have an unremarkable week and still be having a record year, and the reverse is also true.

What this is not

Not one number at two zoom levels. The two figures come from different instruments with different latencies, and they are not convertible into each other. Not an attribution: fire seasons are driven by heat, drought, wind and land use, and the tag on this page states what is and is not established for this event. Not a forecast of where the season ends.

Baseline

Weekly multiple: same-week mean, 2012 to 2025.
Cumulative: complete seasons, 2012 to 2025.

Instruments

NASA FIRMS SNPP VIIRS
thermal anomaly counts, daily, 375 m

GWIS burnt area
mapped perimeters, weekly. Area lands in the week it is mapped, which need not be the week it burned.

Revision

Mapped area for recent weeks rises as perimeters are completed, and a week’s area may be mapped after the week it burned. Published figures are not edited in place; corrections run forward.

The same week elsewhere

7.3xPapua New GuineaWell clear of its 2015 record week5.6xBotswana2.8x its previous record week3.3xNew ZealandWell clear of its 2012 record week
Kristjan Lepik (2026). The Long Swell, Fires. thelongswell.com Kazakhstan · week 43